An article posted by the NAHB today reports that the mood of attendees at this year’s International Builders’ Show was cautiously optimistic.

I was there, and the energy was indeed more upbeat. The networking and communicating is great for the industry, and there’s a certain power in numbers, a sense of energy that breeds cautious optimism.

But I saw something else at the IBS show. Something very good for the industry: rational optimism.

Rational optimism bases your expectations on what you KNOW to be true.

Cautious optimism limits your expectations because of all the unknowns involved.

Rational optimism is earned by seeking out the projects you can grasp fully and get excited about. Putting in honest work and street-level research and taking your best shot, no regrets.

Cautious optimism happens when you lack information. It’s a result of moving forward into the unknown too quickly for your confidence to keep up with you.

Rational optimism can save the residential real estate industry.

Cautious optimism threatens to hold it back.

I’m involved with several projects right now for which I can be rationally optimistic. They’re the only projects I’m willing to take on. I’ve discovered that you can hold yourself to this standard EVEN IN THIS ECONOMY. In fact, it’s more important now than ever.

For banks, receivers and developers in particular, rational optimism is the holy grail. In order to achieve it, intelligence gathering techniques and depth of insight have to adhere to a new standard. Well, new to some. To us, it’s business as usual.

OK, admittedly, I can recall a few times in 2008 where I indulged in cautious optimism. However, I’m very optimistic it won’t happen again. (Rationally so.)

Garry