We’re following up from our post on March 11

The hope was there would be a surge, and there was. Home sales were up 6.8%, thanks to the looming tax credit expiration. It didn’t hurt that we also had unseasonably warm weather and slumping home prices.

Bottom line: people are buying homes. That’s a good thing – the housing market is finally stabilizing! Or is it?

The real test will be what happens later this year, when the closings associated with the tax credit start to wane. (People who have written agreements by April 30 can still close as late as June 30.)

Time to take off the training wheels and see how our post-apocalyptic real estate industry can ride on its own.

Will it be wobbly? Yes. Will it be interesting? You bet. We’ll be keeping you posted, right here. And if you need a real estate consultant or marketer during these interesting times, you know where to find us.

We’re free to listen and bounce ideas around any time. Tell us your story. You’re not alone. We can help. This year, the spoils go to the victor. We want that victor to be YOU.

Garrison Insider

Two weeks ago I hazarded those same powder-keg words in a very public forum – a Crain’s article. But I based my observation on HARD FACTS and observations after witnessing 43 units (over $11 million dollars worth of real estate at about $278 per square foot) sell in 90 minutes. 90 minutes!

Yes, it was an auction. And yes the average purchase was 25% below last asking price. But the sheer momentum indicates something exciting is afoot. Namely that SOME people are very interested in buying real estate again.

Garry Benson: Are You Insane? That was the question posed on the Crain’s comment board by one Ryan C, arguing that I sound like a “snake-oil salesman,” as if I had some sinister ulterior motive, as if we in the industry are all in cahoots trying to hypnotize the buying public with disingenuous bullishness.

My answer to you Ryan is if I’m insane, it’s the good kind of insane…insane for loving this topsy-turvy industry, even the downturn, because the challenges energize the hell out of me. I don’t make my declarations lightly. If there’s a “buy now!” conspiracy going on, I’m not part of it. In fact, half my day is spent advising certain clients NOT to buy, at any discount.

And stop focusing on the deep discount, Ryan. It’s the fact that people bought at all. A good old-fashioned buying frenzy. That speaks volumes about that particular market, and other related markets, in my opinion.

My opinion doesn’t matter? Fine. But look at the CASE-SHILLER Home Price Indices that have shown an upturn in most major markets. Does it mean we’re in for sunny skies in Detroit? No. (Let me know if you want a link to the study, I’ll email it to you.)

FINAL ANALYSIS The auction is merely proof of this: some people are buying up real estate AGAIN, with a hunger and urgency I haven’t seen in a while. These are our SAVVIEST buyers and they are not waiting. I’m clearly not alone in thinking things have stopped going down, Ryan. I’m joined by a mob of people who put their money where there mouth is to the tune of 11 mil.

Ryan and other detractors, let me know your objections to my logic, if any, and I’ll be happy to continue this conversation right here.

Best,

Garry

For more information about our services, please visit our main website at www.GarrisonPartners.com or call our corporate office at (312)750-1610.

I’ve got some bad news and good news

The bad news: we’re seeing lots of hysteria among bankers and developers right now.

The good news: we’re seeing lots of hysteria among bankers and developers right now.

Yes, hysteria can be a GOOD thing. It sure beats the paralysis, denial and blaming we saw so much of in the first half of the year.

HYSTERIA breeds ACTION, because hysteria doesn’t mess around. Hysteria knows that doing nothing spells disaster.

The action to take right now is to actively KNOW THYSELF. Hold up a new mirror. Forget your stories, biases and pre-conceived ideas of what your property is and what it’s capable of doing. Throw away your old pro forma. Everything is different now.

Deals today either have hope or they don’t. If you’re still living with a wait-and-see attitude, now is the time to step up and say no more.

You have three options:

1. Stay the course while making adjustments. Look at your property as if it’s new. Rethink your product and your market and make it work. The buying base is out there and it’s so damn narrow. Look at it with a microscope, because like an uber-virus it keeps changing and morphing. Who’s actually buying? Do we have the right amenities? What should our pricing be?

2. Radical adaptation: a condo becomes a rental building. A hotel becomes a condo. Take a fresh look at what you have to work with. What efforts and infrastructure can you  SALVAGE and parlay into a new kind of property?

3. Cut your losses. Unleash this puppy and move on. It’s sad, but it’s better than doing nothing. The earlier you accept defeat, the easier it is to minimize the damage. You’ll be happier afterwards, like a weight has been lifted and you can plot a new course, having maximized your outcome.

Your product is either a 1, 2 or a 3. If you don’t know which, you’re not alone. We’ve been all over – projects from the South Loop to the Gold Coast, from Boston to Idaho both downtown and burbs – helping people discover if their project is a one, two or three, and helping them plot a course. They’re sick of being in the dark. “Know thyself,” is becoming very popular.

Find a third party to hold up a mirror. My partners and I used to work on the development side of the deal with big companies with huge portfolios. That’s where we learned the business. WE GET IT. We’re wired to make your problems our problems.

If you can’t use us, find someone like us – seasoned site advocates, not a mere brokerage with broad listings and a sales-only mindset. If you have a question or just want some clarity, post a comment or contact me. That’s what this blog is all about.

Embrace the hysteria, folks. ’09 is coming to a close. The future of real estate belongs to those who dare to be self-aware RIGHT NOW and perform the proper analysis and diagnostics needed to move boldly forward.

Good luck and Godspeed,

Garry

For more information on Garrison Partners’ services, please visit www.GarrisonPartners.com

www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvPyaEYkGG0

For more information on Garrison Partners’ services, please visit our website at www.garrisonpartners.com

Today I want to talk about REINVENTION.

In my last post, I talked about a property, reinvented, and how it rose from the ashes like a phoenix.

But what about you? Has this economy left you feeling like a pile of ashes?

Let me tell you something. In two years time, the lives of so many of my colleagues have been altered.  Great people who have made great contributions to the industry. Many of them I’d call visionaries. Gone, overnight.

But there’s another option: REINVENTION.

REINVENT YOURSELF. That’s partially what this blog is about. Success today is about reinvention.

I’m talking about the developer who evolves into a consultancy. The marketing agency who evolves into a niche brokerage. The sales agent who, instead of bagging groceries at Trader Joe’s, seeks out a new position in real estate, joining a company who is also in the midst of reinventing itself, and takes up the cause.

At Garrison Partners, we’ve reinvented ourselves by putting our decades of experience to work helping banks and Developers.

We breathe life into so-called doomed properties, or effectively monetize
what’s left of them.

How are you reinventing yourself? Do you have questions about how you’re going to reinvent yourself?  Let me know in the comments of this blog.

Thanks again for the warm welcome into your lives. Remember, we’re all in
this together.